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Search resuls for: "Davide Barbuscia"


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"I think it really brings home that shift being a regime shift rather than a cyclical one," Katimbo-Mugwanya said. S&P said the assumption that governments would prioritise servicing debt over spending promises had rarely been tested at such high debt levels. For now, despite the steepest increases in borrowing costs in decades, investors still see little risk in holding governments' longer-term debt. POLICY WATCHGreater focus on longer-term risks should bring scrutiny of government policies. Still, with higher debt an economic reality, few governments are left with the coveted AAA rating.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Fitch, David Katimbo, Mugwanya, Bill Ackman, Moritz Kraemer, Fichan, Kraemer, Kshitij Sinha, Martin Lenz, LBBW's Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Davide Barbuscia, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, AAA, Financial, Fitch, EdenTree Investment Management, P Global, LBBW, European Union, European Commission, European Central Bank, Syz, New York Fed, Life Asset, Union Investment, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, Japan
But several portfolio managers said the bigger worry was whether China would strike back, as it has in the past. "It is naïve to think that there won't be some type of retaliation from China," said Tom Plumb, CEO of mutual fund Plumb Funds. China could restrict exports of rare earths used in consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and other components, or target other U.S. technology companies, Plumb said. SELF-SUFFICIENCYChina hawks in Washington say American investors have transferred capital and valuable know-how to Chinese technology companies that could help advance Beijing's military capabilities. Phillip Wool, a co-portfolio manager of Rayliant Quantamental China Equity ETF, said U.S.-China tensions were causing investors to miss out on China growth.
Persons: Florence Lo, Joe Biden's, Biden, Rick Meckler, Tom Plumb, Plumb, Michael Ashley Schulman, Phillip Wool, Shashwat Chauhan, Amruta, Chibuike Oguh, Laura Matthews, Herbert Lash, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Grant McCool Organizations: REUTERS, Cherry Lane Investments, China Exchange, Wall, Micron Technology, U.S, Funds, Reuters, Running, Capital Advisors, China Equity, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Beijing, New Jersey, Washington, Rayliant
Edward Marrinan, macro credit strategy desk analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities America, added: "Credit risk at this point is mispriced." The move prompted a sell-off in equities and slight widening in corporate credit spreads. The average investment-grade bond spreads as of on Thursday were just a few basis points wider than the tightest levels touched this year in July and 16 basis points tighter from January. Junk-bond spreads are 98 basis points inside January levels. "With market consensus now expecting a soft landing, the credit markets are arguably underpricing default risk," BMO’s Krieter said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Cindy Beaulieu, Edward Marrinan, Moody's, Daniel Krieter, Krieter, Marrinan, Manuel Hayes, Hayes, BMO’s Krieter, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Paritosh Bansal, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: NYSE, American Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, London, Insight Investment, Informa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Fitch told the U.S. Treasury about its ultimate decision about 24 hours ahead of the announcement. Fitch's recent talks with the Treasury did not include the actual downgrade decision, Francis said, because it had not yet been made by the agency's ratings committee. On Monday, Fitch's credit committee met, made a decision, and Treasury officials received the Fitch press release of the downgrade. "The timing of the committee was pure coincidence," Francis told Reuters on Friday, noting the date was set weeks ago. Debt ceiling votes have been "acrimonious for decades," one U.S. official complained, referring to a long history of standoffs.
Persons: Dylan Martinez WASHINGTON, Biden, Donald Trump, Harvard's Larry Summers, Jamie Dimon, Fitch, Joe Biden, Richard Francis, Fitch's, Francis, Mark Sobel, Sobel, Alexander Hamilton, David Lawder, Davide Barbuscia, Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell Organizations: Fitch, REUTERS, White House, Reuters, U.S . Treasury, Republicans, Congress, U.S, AAA, Treasury, Social Security, Capitol, Trump, longtime Treasury, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, U.S
In a July update of its credit opinion on the sovereign rating, Moody's maintained its Aaa rating and stable outlook, which means likelihood of a new rating over the medium term is low. Moody's did not offer comment beyond referring Reuters to its latest credit opinion, which it said reflected its latest thinking on the U.S. sovereign credit profile. In Moody's view, these factors counterbalance "lower fiscal strength," which the agency expects will weaken. In its latest credit opinion, Moody's said it had confidence in the strength of U.S. institutions, adding that monetary and macroeconomic policies have "a long history of effectiveness." It said, however, that other aspects of policymaking are "less robust than in many Aaa-rated peers," particularly when it comes to fiscal policy effectiveness.
Persons: Fitch, Lawrence Gillum, Ryan Detrick, Moody’s, it’s, Moody's, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Diane Craft Organizations: Moody's Corporation, AAA, U.S, OECD, LPL, Carson Group, Aaa, Reuters, TRIPLE, U.S ., Treasuries, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, United States, Australia, Canada, Fitch
That deterioration, as well as increased polarization in the country’s political climate, was visible in the Jan. 6 insurrection, which the agency highlighted in meetings with the Treasury ahead of the downgrade. "You have the debt ceiling, you have Jan. 6. Higher interest rates are also likely to make the country's debt burden heavier to sustain, he added. The latest debt ceiling suspension, agreed in June, will last until early 2025, when another political debate around the borrowing limit is likely, he added. "That would just highlight the real political polarization and the kind of deterioration in governance that we've already noted ... to have a two-notch downgrade would be pretty harsh."
Persons: Donald Trump, Leah Millis, Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Janet Yellen, we've, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Fitch, Reuters, AAA, Republicans, Hearst, Standard, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, States, United States
That deterioration, as well as increased polarization in the country’s political climate, was visible in the Jan. 6 insurrection, which the agency highlighted in meetings with the Treasury ahead of the downgrade. "It was something that we highlighted because it just is a reflection of the deterioration in governance, it's one of many," he said. "You have the debt ceiling, you have Jan. 6. The latest debt ceiling suspension, agreed in June, will last until early 2025, when another political debate around the borrowing limit is likely, he added. "That would just highlight the real political polarization and the kind of deterioration in governance that we've already noted ... to have a two-notch downgrade would be pretty harsh."
Persons: Donald Trump, Leah Millis, Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Janet Yellen, Jared Bernstein, , we've, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Fitch, Reuters, AAA, Republicans, Hearst, Standard, Treasury, CNBC, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, States, United States
U.S. Capitol police stand outside the Capitol building as the Senate votes on debt ceiling legislation to avoid a historic default at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., June 1, 2023. Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills. With the downgrade it becomes the second major rating agency after Standard & Poor’s to strip the United States of its triple-A rating. Investors use credit ratings to assess the risk profile of companies and governments when they raise financing in the debt capital markets. Other analysts had pointed to the risk that another downgrade by a major rating agency could affect investment portfolios that hold top-rated securities.
Persons: Evelyn Hockstein, Fitch, Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, Biden, Karine Jean, Pierre, Keith Lerner, Raymond James, Ed Mills, Mohamed El, Davide Barbuscia, Jyoti Narayan, Lewis Krauskopf, Saeed Azhar, Megan Davies, Arun Koyyur, David Gregoiro, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Capitol, U.S, REUTERS, White, AAA, Standard, Democratic, Republican, Treasury, Advisory Services, ” Treasury, Fitch, AA, Queens ' College, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, States, United States, Atlanta, New York, Bengaluru
The Treasury earlier this month posted a $228 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier. "They have to grow coupon auction sizes - not just at the August refunding, not just at the November refunding, but also at the February refunding as well, because they are ultimately trying to balance this supply picture between bills vs coupons and this growing financing need," Swiber said. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) recommends that bills make up 15-20% of the total marketable debt. The Treasury will release its quarterly borrowing requirement Monday afternoon, and its refunding news comes Wednesday at 0830 ET/1230 GMT. The Treasury surveyed dealers about their opinion on how some details of the program should work ahead of the August refunding.
Persons: Steven Zeng, Meghan Swiber, Swiber, Ben Jeffery, Karen Brettell, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, COVID, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S
Global Head of Fixed Income Group Sara Devereux said on Thursday the probability of another interest rate increase by the Fed this year stood at 50%. Beyond that, the U.S. central bank was likely to maintain a "hawkish hold" on rates. "We don't think they're going to cut rates anytime soon ... the Fed may have more work to do." Vanguard, which manages $8 trillion in assets, said its base case scenario remained for a shallow recession in 2024 as higher interest rates hit the economy. "The downside risk ... is the Fed overshoots and they drive us into a deeper recession."
Persons: Sara Devereux, Jerome Powell, Devereux, Davide Barbuscia, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, Vanguard, Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York
With its latest 25 basis point interest rate increase now in the books, the Fed has raised the benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points since March 2022 to a level last seen before the 2007 housing market crash in a fight to bring down inflation. Still, some fixed income investors have remained on edge over how long the Fed can keep interest rates at restrictive levels without sparking an economic downturn. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures traders saw increased probability of another interest rate increase in September. To be sure, investors had badly overestimated the chances for recession at the beginning of this year and could be wrong again. Over the past year the unemployment rate has remained stubbornly low and growth has run consistently above trend.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Gurpreet Gill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, Kristy Akullian, It's, Adam Hetts, Janus Henderson, Mike Sanders, Blair Shwedo, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Barclays, BlackRock, Investment, Treasury, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Madison Investments, U.S . Bank, Thomson
The U.S. Treasury started rebuilding its account through T-bills after the government's debt ceiling was suspended last month. Since early June, the Treasury General Account at the Fed has increased by about $460 billion. "The risk of reserve scarcity in the near-term has receded as more cash has left the RRP facility," said Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy at TD Securities USA. "However, money market funds shifted their allocation out of the RRP facility into outright purchases of T-bills and private repo markets," they said. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Gennadiy Goldberg, Davide Barbuscia, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Fed, Federal, Securities USA, Citi, repo, ON, Thomson Locations: U.S
NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said on Monday the bank was cutting its probability that a U.S recession will start in the next 12 months to 20% from an earlier 25% forecast. "The main reason for our cut is that the recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession," he said in a research note. Reporting by Davide BarbusciaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: YORK, Thomson Locations: U.S
The yield curve's inversions deepened in June after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates two more times this year. Stronger-than-expected economic data on Thursday backed expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. Treasury yields- which move inversely to prices - moved up, with 10-year and two-year yields hitting their highest since March 10 and 9, respectively, while some curve inversions intensified. The spread between one- and 30-year Treasury yields was as wide as 153 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest gap since 1981. Key areas of the U.S. economy, including housing and labor, have proven resilient despite higher rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Rilling, Huw Roberts, Davide Barbuscia, Chuck Mikolajczak, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes, Aurora Ellis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, U.S, Treasury, Federal, Allspring Global Investments, Quant, Thomson Locations: U.S
An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones, reflecting bets that the central bank will need to cut rates to buoy an economy hurt by higher borrowing costs. The yield curve's inversions deepened in June, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates two more times this year. "Keeping rates higher for longer increases the chance that we move into a downturn," said Janet Rilling, a senior portfolio manager and the head of the Plus Fixed Income team at Allspring Global Investments. The curve between five- and 30-year Treasuries , meanwhile, touched a low of -20.7 on Wednesday - the most inverted since March. Key areas of the U.S. economy, including housing and labor, have proven resilient despite higher rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Rilling, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: YORK, U.S, Treasury, Federal, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S
BlackRock says AI 'mega-force' to buck tough macro trend
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
June 28 (Reuters) - Shares of AI-focused companies will be a major driver of returns for developed markets in a tough economic environment, BlackRock Investment Institute said, citing an unusually concentrated rally in a handful of technology stocks. "We think this unusual equity market shows a mega force like AI can be a big driver of returns even when the macro environment is not your friend," BlackRock Investment Institute's team wrote in a mid-year outlook note. The institute, an arm of the world's biggest asset manager, has an over-weight allocation for AI-related shares in developed markets. "We think this is an environment that is going to persist," Jean Bovin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute told reporters on Wednesday. BlackRock said it expects central banks in developed economies to keep rates steady at a high level regardless of possible episodes of financial instability.
Persons: Jean Bovin, BlackRock, Susan Mathew, Davide Barbuscia, Sinead Carew, Anil D'Silva, Barbara Lewis Organizations: BlackRock Investment Institute, Investment, Thomson Locations: BlackRock, Japan, Bengaluru, New York
Powell's comments did little to sway investors in futures markets tied to the Fed’s policy rate, which on Wednesday reflected bets for only one additional rate increase this year, followed by cuts in January. An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones. It suggests that while investors expect interest rates to rise in the near term, they believe higher borrowing costs will eventually hurt the economy, forcing the Fed to later ease monetary policy. "With a steeply inverted curve we see a lot of yield and a lot of attractive opportunities in the front end," said Steve Hooker, portfolio manager of Newfleet Asset Management. Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer of PGIM Fixed Income, said inflation remained way too high to anticipate rate cuts any time soon.
Persons: Jerome Powell hasn't, Powell, Powell's, Roger Hallam, Steve Hooker, ” Hooker, Greg Peters, We're, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Federal, Fed, Vanguard, Silicon Valley Bank, Commonwealth Financial Network, Newfleet Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Silicon, U.S
As a result, he is staying away from assets that could be hit hard if market stress suddenly increases, such as small cap stocks. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% on Wednesday after shuffling between gains and losses. The S&P 500 is up 15% this year, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) has gained 30%. Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management, believes a burgeoning stock market rally could loosen credit conditions, threatening to exacerbate consumer prices - an undesirable outcome for the inflation-fighting Fed. The S&P 500 is up 14% from a low reached after the banking crisis in March.
Persons: , Josh Emanuel, Emanuel, James St . Aubin, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mark Heppenstall, Josh Jamner, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: YORK, Federal, Wilshire, Nasdaq, Sierra Investment Management, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fed, Penn Mutual Asset Management, ClearBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S
NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. investor Stanley Druckenmiller, chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Duquesne Family Office, said on Wednesday that he still expects a hard landing for the U.S. economy, as inflation persists, but offered a positive outlook for Nvidia. Still, the investor is bullish on artificial intelligence, mainly on chipmaker Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O). "Unlike crypto I think AI is real," he said. "If it's as big as I think it is, Nvidia is something we're going to want to own for at least two or three years. Reporting by Carolina Mandl and Davide Barbuscia in New YorkOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Carolina Mandl, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: YORK, Duquesne Family Office, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Nvidia Corp, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York
The Treasury General Account has fallen sharply since January when Treasury hit its limit on borrowing. Cash balance targets indicate it will need to rebuild its account quickly now that the borrowing cap has been lifted. "Money market funds are extremely short ... so the trillion-dollar Treasury bills (issuance) would be welcome with open arms," said money market fund expert Peter Crane, president of Crane Data. Part of that could be due to the fact that money funds, heavily exposed to short-term debt this year, have started to extend the their maturities recently. "The Federal Reserve RRP has been holding trillions of the money fund assets and so that money can easily be redeployed into Treasury bills.
Persons: Steven Zeng, Zeng, Glenmede, Peter Crane, RRP, Bank's Zeng, Davide Barbuscia, Karen Brettel, Alden Bentley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Treasuries, Crane, Federal, Thomson Locations: New York
"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, , Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo
Reflecting investor optimism about passage, the cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default dropped on Tuesday, but some concerns remained because of the tight timeline and opposition from some lawmakers. Last week, credit rating agency Fitch placed its "AAA" rating of U.S. sovereign debt on watch for a possible downgrade, citing downside risks including political brinkmanship and a growing debt burden. In a previous debt ceiling crisis in 2011 rating agency Standard & Poor's cut the U.S. top 'AAA' rating by one notch a few days after a debt ceiling deal, citing political polarization and insufficient steps to right the nation's fiscal outlook. "Even if a U.S. default is averted, a ratings downgrade could still happen," Vishwanath Tirupattur, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note on Sunday. Some also fear a debt ceiling resolution could only provide short-term relief to markets because the U.S. Treasury is expected to quickly refill its account with bond sales, sucking out hundreds of billions of dollars of cash from the market.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Fitch, Raymond James, Ed Mills, Alex Anderson, Vishwanath Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley, Spokespeople, Blair Shwedo, Davide Barbuscia, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Pete Schroeder, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, Democratic, Republican, U.S . Treasury Department, BMO Capital Markets, AAA, Moody's, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: U.S
May 28 (Reuters) - Good news of a tentative deal for the U.S. debt ceiling impasse may quickly turn out to be bad news for financial markets. "That's where the debt ceiling matters." In that case, "the impact on broader financial markets would likely be relatively muted," Daniel Krieter, director of fixed income strategy, BMO Capital Markets, said in a report. Some bankers said they fear financial markets may not have accounted for the risk of a liquidity drain from banks' reserves. Bankers put it to hope that the debt ceiling impasse would be resolved without significant dislocation to markets, but warn that's a risky strategy.
Their rally has been responsible for all of the 8.3% year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 (.SPX) through Wednesday's close, a Deutsche Bank report showed. A recent survey of global fund managers from BofA Global Research showed that 71% believe a deal to raise the debt ceiling will be reached before the X-date. Excitement over artificial intelligence, which has boosted some megacap names this year, is another factor that could support the category. At the same time, the debt ceiling has been only one of of several worries weighing on the market. Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects lawmakers will reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through September.
NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - A measure of the cost to insure exposure to U.S. government debt declined on Tuesday as Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy edged closer to a deal to avoid a debt default. Spreads on U.S. one-year credit default swaps, market-based gauges of the risk of a default, declined to 155 basis points from 164 basis points on Monday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Spreads on five-year CDS decreased to 69 basis points from 72 bps on Monday. Investor jitters around a possible U.S. default have intensified in recent weeks as the deadline to raise the government's borrowing cap looms closer than what many in the market had anticipated. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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